Brief introduction to the one week market of the m

2022-07-26
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A brief introduction to the weekly market of China Plastics spot PP (October 15 to October 19)

this week, China's plastic price index basically fell. After a week, it fell from 1255.76 points at the beginning of the week to 1255.43 points on Friday, down 0.33 points from the beginning of the week and 1.92 points from the same period last week. This week, the China Plastics spot index rose first and then fell. From 1231.02 points at the beginning of the week, it closed at 1230.28 points on Friday, down 0.74 points from the beginning of the week and 0.26 points from the same period last week

I. review of upstream information:

international crude oil showed an overall upward trend this week. Geopolitical tensions pushed up the oil price, and the further depreciation of the US dollar also contributed to the flames. The crude oil price hit a record high. On Friday, the WTI even broke through US $90 per barrel. At present, WTI crude oil is $88.60/barrel, up $4.91 compared with the same period last week; Brent crude oil was $83.79/barrel, up $3.24 from the same period last week. Due to the record low of the US dollar against the euro, the inventory of crude oil and refined oil is still lower than that of the same period last year, and the tense situation in the Middle East still supports the market, the bullish atmosphere in the oil market is still strong

II. Market Review:

the weak atmosphere in the PP market this week and the depressed market sentiment for a long time have led businesses to have no intention of receiving goods in the near future and to wait and see. However, the introduction of price cuts in some petrochemicals has led to extravagant expectations of market stability, and the price has declined slightly accordingly. In the early stage, the situation in North China was reversed for a long time. Although the petrochemical price was finally reduced, the transaction atmosphere in the market was not active after the price reduction. However, market intermediaries in East China and South China began to wait for the price reduction of Shanghai and Guangzhou branches. Although the price reduction of homopolymer had not been introduced, the market mentality could not be improved. As a result, the gap in the supply of homopolymer wire drawing goods caused by the reduced load production of Maoming petrochemical unit and the film materials produced in Fujian could not be spread in the market until 1986, when it had reached 40000 tons. Although the supply of goods in South China is relatively small recently and the price remains firm, the transaction is not active. Lack of motivation and stimulation for the market to warm up, most contract investors are not willing to stock up, and retail investors are wise to protect themselves. Let's see the development of the situation

the PP raw material market in Yuyao China Plastics City fell slightly this week., Although the international oil price continues to operate at the high price response level, it is difficult for China Plastics warehouse receipt market and PP spot market to get rid of the downturn. At the beginning of the week, the market was affected by the rumors of petrochemical copolymerization price reduction, and the copolymerization market quotation began to decline, which also triggered the market's concern about homopolymer. Results the price reduction policy was issued, the price of some copolymers was lowered by 200 yuan, and the homopolymerization was temporarily stable. In terms of wire drawing, there are many sources of wire drawing in East China. In addition, the market quotation is weak and the transaction is not smooth due to the South transfer of wire drawing in North China. In terms of mentality, the merchants were pessimistic about the market trend in the later stage, and some of their attention to PP turned to PE market. As of Friday, the price of Haila wire T30S in Yuyao market town was 11950 yuan, the price quoted by small businesses was 12000 yuan/ton, the price quoted by Yangzi F401 was less than 12100 yuan/ton, and the price quoted by Shaoxing Sanyuan T30S was yuan/ton

situation in other regions: this week, the wire drawing quotation in Dalian market was stable at about yuan/ton; The price of drawing T30S in Beijing market ranges from yuan/ton; The price of drawing T30S in Linyi market is 11280 yuan/ton, excluding tax; The quotation of j340 in Nanjing market is 12350 yuan/ton; The quotation of Maoming wire drawing T30S in Chengdu market is 12000 yuan/ton; The quotation of Lanhua F401 is RMB/ton; The price of wire drawing in Guangzhou market is 12000 yuan/ton; Wire drawing in Shunde market is about yuan/ton, excluding tax

trends of domestic manufacturers: Sinopec introduced some price reduction policies this week, which failed to bring about a change in the market. After the price reduction of CNPC Huabei, the price of homopolymer of Beijing Branch was reduced by 100 yuan, and the price of some copolymers was reduced by 150 yuan; Shanghai Branch reduced the price of low melting copolymerization by 200 yuan. In terms of PetroChina, PetroChina East China division reduced the price by Yuan twice this week; The sales price of Southwest Division was reduced by yuan; The outbound price of film materials in North China was reduced by 50 yuan; The price of North China Petrochemical membrane materials was reduced by 50 yuan; Fushun Petrochemical cut prices. In addition, the ex factory price of Shanghai Secco was reduced by RMB. In terms of devices, Liaoyang Petrochemical PP device is planned to start shutdown and maintenance on July 10 and start up at the end of October; The PP unit of Qianguo refinery was shut down on July 15. The recent start-up was unsuccessful, and the start-up plan was postponed again; Daqing Refining and chemical PP plant resumed operation last Friday; The PP unit of Huabei Petrochemical was temporarily overhauled last Sunday night due to insufficient raw materials, and it is planned to start up in the near future

III. trend forecast for next week:

now it has entered the second half of October. According to the traditional concept, the fourth quarter is mainly gray for PP. Recently, most people in the market have great differences in the contraction rate of PP market, and they have no good expectations for growth. From the macro perspective, the general environment of supply exceeding demand has not changed. From the micro perspective, the supply and demand fundamentals of the PP market continue to maintain, and there are not many resources available in the market. For the next week's market, a small number of businesses hope that the supply of goods in the North China market will be digested, and my colleagues take advantage of the PE market to rise, hoping that the PP market will turn slightly warmer, but the bullish sentiment is very weak. Most people believe that the market will continue to stabilize on the premise that the petrochemical price is stable, and more favorable factors are needed to fade the weak atmosphere

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